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Virginia Cooperative Extension -
 Knowledge for the CommonWealth

The Cattle Business

Livestock Update, March 2000

Bill R. McKinnon, Extension Animal Scientist, Marketing Virginia Tech

The latest U. S. Cattle Inventory Report seems to indicate that the liquidation phase of the current cattle cycle may be drawing to a close. Cow slaughter slowed during the second half of 1999; which in turn slowed the nation's cowherd reduction rate from that of recent years. Many experts expect the liquidation of the country's cowherd to halt during 2000 with a trend toward heifer retention to begin.

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January 1, 2000
U.S. Cattle Inventory Report

2000

1999
2000 as a
% of 1999

(million head)(million head) All cattle and calves98.099.199
All cows that have calved42.742.9100
Beef cows that have calved33.533.79
Beef replacement heifers5.55.5100
Steers over 500 lbs. 16.716.999
Calves under 500 lbs. 16.817.397

1999

1998
1999 as a
% of 1998

Calf crop38.738.8100

Cattle feeding profits during most of 1999 fueled tremendous demand for feeder cattle during late 1999. Cattle on feed numbers have been running 6-8% ahead of the previous year and 3% more than two years earlier. Feedlot bids have been pulling calves directly into the feed yards, bypassing more traditional backgrounding and stocker operations. Heavier weight yearling cattle should be in much shorter than normal supplies in the third and fourth quarter of 2000.

The strong demand from cattle feeders has also attracted heifers in near record numbers to the feedlot and away from the replacement female pool. Since August of 1999, heifers had made up 36 to 38% of the cattle on feed which is significantly higher than the normal rate of heifers on feed. The large number of heifers on feed is considered to reflect liquidation pace and contributed to the record beef production of 1999. Only in the most recent Cattle on Feed report (February 1, 2000) were heifers down to 32% of all cattle on feed. The most recent drop in the relative number of heifers in the on-feed mix is still at relatively high levels but may suggest a move toward an increase in heifers retained for breeding.

The Virginia numbers contained in the inventory report seem to reflect the impact of the drought of 1999. The reduction in Virginia cattle numbers might have been even greater if not for the fall rains east of the Blue Ridge which produced some much need fall grazing. The Virginia numbers also reinforce the notion that stocker cattle for yearling grazing programs in 2000 will be in short supply.

Virginia Cattle Inventory
January 1, 2000

2000

1999
2000 as a
% of 1999

(1000 head) (1000 head)
All cattle and calves1600170094
All cows that have calved78081096
Beef cows that have calved66168896
Beef replacement heifers11211597
Steers over 500 lbs. 17519092
Calves under 500 lbs. 37041090

1999

1998
1999 as a
% of 1998

Calf crop72074097
Operations with cattle28,00029,000
Operations with beef cows23,00023,000

Using the most recent inventory report places Virginia 21st in the nation in total cattle numbers. Virginia ranks 18th nationally in beef cow numbers.



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